Friday, 2 May 2008

Odds and Evens

So I was playing poker this evening (deeply unsuccessfully as it turns out), and this situation came up:

2 players left in pre-turn, dealer (D) and non-dealer (N), flop showing K K J.

N goes all in, D matches. Both show their hands, N has A 2, D has K 8. So D has three kings playing N with two kings ace high. So far, so forgone conclusion.

Turn: Ace.

River: Ace.

N wins with full house, Aces over Kings, at odds pre-turn of 1 in 330.

Pretty amazing, and yet still 42,000 times more likely to happen than winning the lottery.

I wasn't involved in this hand, since a couple of hands before I'd gone all in (£11) on a Queen high, and was called by someone with a straight. Yep, I'm that good at poker...

As a disclaimer, my probability abilities are almost non existent, so the above numbers may need some correction :s

Edit: Yep, as expected, I fucked up the probability calculation. I think it's closer now...

Edit 2: Via the magic of finding-a-photo-on-my-phone, there is now visual documentation available above :D

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